At the UK AI Security Summit, held in Bletchley Park, England, on 2 November 2023, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Vice President Kamala Harris prepared for a group photo, underlining their continued diplomatic engagement.
As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares for her pivotal speech at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday, her speech is expected to be a defining moment in her political career. At 59, Harris is outlining her political vision for America, sparking interest in Europe about the potential impact her presidency will have on transatlantic ties.
After President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race last month, Harris emerged as the Democratic frontrunner, setting the stage for a November election showdown with Republican nominee former President Donald Trump.
Some political commentators suggested to CNBC that Harris would likely retain Biden’s policy framework, albeit with nuanced changes on key international issues, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Europe remains realistic about the expectations that a Democratic victory in the White House will have, aware that it will not solve all of the continent’s security dilemmas or reverse its industrial strategies.
Sudha David-Wilp, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti stress that a Harris administration would represent continuity in foreign policy. They predict a moderate reduction in military support for Ukraine, a sustained assertive stance toward China without sharp tariff hikes, and a balanced approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Francesco Nicoli, associate professor at the Polytechnic University of Turin and visiting fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, expects US-EU convergence to persist under Harris, especially on trade, technology and environmental policies. He suggests that while the key “red lines” in US aid to Ukraine may not change dramatically, the new Democratic leadership could adopt a more assertive stance.
Regarding the EU’s position on global conflicts, Nicoli notes that while the EU would likely support any peace deal between Israel and Hamas, it remains divided on China, which limits its effectiveness as a partner to the US unless a significant conflict occurs.
Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and Americas program at Chatham House, discusses Harris’s challenge in shaping her foreign policy during her vice presidency. She highlights her commitment to human rights, particularly in the context of Palestinian lives, which could distinguish her approach from Biden’s.
David-Wilp discusses how a Harris win could enable Europe to improve its defense capabilities and adapt to the new dynamics of the US-EU relationship. He advises the EU to work with the US to secure supply chains and invest in domestic innovation to address global challenges.
As the political landscape evolves, Harris’s approach to diplomacy and international relations continues to be a central point of debate, particularly with regard to the implications for Europe and the broader transatlantic alliance.
